Friday, March 29, 2013

Ancient Mariner Problems

     Shlomi Dinar, the Associate Professor and Associate Director for the School of International and Public Affairs of Florida International University and "hydro-politics" expert, suggests that "the wars of the next century will be about freshwater" (Dinar 2009, 109).  Although smaller regional skirmishes would be expected, it is unlikely that an interconnected global community will resolve critical resource inadequacies with acts of hostility.


     Conflict, violent or otherwise, is essentially a measurement of degrees of cooperation.  For example, a multi-national treaty to divvy up resources and play well with others represents a very high degree of cooperation. While two states vying for a single resource could possibly represent only an assumed cooperative agreement to compete violently in the theater of battle. Therefore, the scarcity of a resource desired by more than one State, can influence to what degree of cooperation States are willing or able to enter into. There is a “direct relationship between scarcity and cooperation,” (Dinar 2009, 110) and as the population of the Earth drives exponentially onward to the point of critical mass the resources that we all need to survive are becoming exhausted.


     To examine to what degree international States can be expected to cooperate when the most essential of resources, namely fresh water supplies, becomes contested, we must consider first other factors that influence the likelihood of a cooperative scenario. The modern era has seen an unprecedented level of interconnectivity between States. Interconnectivity nullifies the zero-sum game and creates a greater need to cooperate at a higher level.  Because “interdependence not only highlights the sensitivities between countries, but also their reciprocal vulnerabilities” (Dinar 2009, 114) States are more apt to cooperate at a higher degree in order meet their basic needs as well as their social and political requirements.

     Although the idea of sharing a finite resource does not meet the realist ideal of State self-sufficiency, it is important to remember that, while bygone eras saw the State as the primary actor in most international relations scenarios, the power to influence cooperation is not necessarily a State held function in contemporary global society. Also, because “Decision-makers are usually not theorists” (Mowle 2003, 563) the worldview of international policymakers, be it a framework of liberalism or realism, could have less influence than motivated structures or individuals who seek to encourage or discourage cooperation as a function of resource division. It is important to be flexible enough to “shift the level of analysis from the State—which has neither intent nor independent action—to the individuals within the state who direct purposive action” (Mowle 2003, 562). It is this shift from State held influence to a greater degree of individual or structural impact, along with the growing interconnectivity between States and populations that assures that some degree of cooperation will be utilized to deal with the impending scarcity of fresh water resources.




References

Dinar, Shlomi. "Scarcity and cooperation along international rivers." Global Environmental       Politics, February 2009: 109-35.


Mowle, Thomas S. "Worldviews in foreign policy: realism, liberalism, and external conflict." Political Philosophy 24, no. 3 (September 2003): 561-92.

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